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41st Canadian general election |
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| Election date: | Writs issued: |
| On or before October 15, 2012 |
TBD |
| Campaign period: | Seats contested: |
| TBD | 308 |
| Incumbent: | |
| Conservative minority | |
| Result: | |
| TBD | |
| Registered parties: | |
| Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party Bloc Québécois Canadian Action Party Christian Heritage Party of Canada Communist Party of Canada Conservative Party of Canada First Peoples National Party Green Party of Canada Liberal Party of Canada Libertarian Party of Canada Marijuana Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada New Democratic Party People's Political Power of Canada Progressive Canadian Party Western Block Party |
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| Elections Canada Website | |
| Canadian general elections | |
The 41st Canadian federal election is tentatively scheduled for 15 October 2012 under the Canada Elections Act unless the 40th Canadian Parliament is dissolved earlier by the Governor General. Voters will choose members of the Canadian House of Commons for the 41st Canadian Parliament.
It is likely that the election will be called earlier than the scheduled date. The 40th Canadian federal election resulted in a minority government, which rarely last longer than two years in Canada. Furthermore, instability in the government has been exacerbated by the 2008/2009 Canadian parliamentary dispute.
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Target seats
The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2008 election. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.
These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 40th Canadian federal election.
Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.
* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election).
| Conservative | Liberal |
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| Bloc Québécois | New Democratic |
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| Green | |
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Targeted Cabinet ministers
The following Cabinet ministers were elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2008:
- Gail Shea, Fisheries and Oceans: 0.3% over Liberal in Egmont, PE
- Denis Lebel, Minister of State (Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec): 3.9% over Bloc in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean, QC
- Gary Lunn, Natural Resources: 4.7% over Liberal in Saanich—Gulf Islands, BC
- Leona Aglukkaq, Health: 5.4% over Liberal in Nunavut, NU
- Diane Finley, Human Resources and Skills Development: 8.48% over Liberal in Haldimand—Norfolk, ON
- Lawrence Cannon, Foreign Affairs: 8.5% over Liberal in Pontiac, QC
- Peter Kent, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs (Americas): 9.58% over Liberal in Thornhill, ON
Opinion Polls
| Polling Firm | Date of Polling | Link | Conservative | Liberal | New Democratic | Bloc Québécois | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMPAS | December 23, 2008 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 8 | |
| Angus Reid Strategies | December 12, 2008 | 37 | 31 | 15 | 9 | 8 | |
| Ipsos Reid | December 11, 2008 | 45 | 26 | 12 | 10 | 7 | |
| Angus Reid Strategies | December 6, 2008 | 42 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 7 | |
| Praxicus Public Strategies | December 4, 2008 | 47 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 8 | |
| COMPAS | December 4, 2008 | 51 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |
| EKOS Research Associates | December 4, 2008 | 42.2 | 23.6 | 15.0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 3, 2008 | 45 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 8 | |
| Ipsos Reid | December 3, 2008 | 46 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 8 | |
| EKOS Research Associates | December 3, 2008 | 44.0 | 24.1 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 8.1 | |
| Nanos Research | November 15, 2008 | 32 | 30 | 20 | 9 | 10 | |
| Election 2008 | October 14, 2008 | HTML | 37.6 | 26.2 | 18.2 | 10.0 | 6.8 |
Projections and predictions
- Trendlines Research Monthly chart tracking of average of recognized Riding Projection models
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| Federal political parties | Federal electoral districts | Historical federal electoral districts |
Wikipedia content modification information:
- This page was last modified on 5 January 2009, at 09:12.
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